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Website: http://www.loganselm.blogspot.com
Email: hypospeaks@columbus.rr.com

Hypo Speaks is a collection of veteran political campaigners, Ohio Statehouse insiders, consultants and writers.

[updated] BREAKING: Reform Ohio Now campaign scores legal victory

Although the Secretary of State's office has okay'd the petitions required to put the 4 Reform Ohio Now constitutional amendments on the ballot Nov. 8, a group of well-connected GOPers have mounted a legal challenge to the signature-gathering method used by petitioners.

Yesterday a hearing was held on the matter, and although the details are few, the Gongwer Report (no link - subscription required) has just released the following news:

The 10th Ohio District Court of Appeals on Friday dismissed a Republican-backed lawsuit to block four election-related  constitutional amendments from the fall ballot, Carlo LoParo, spokesman for Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, said.

Opponent group Ohio First had argued that Mr. Blackwell had illegally assumed quasi-judicial powers in a directive to election boards that allowed non-residents to circulate petitions.

Columbus Dispatch shows momentum to Kerry

Via Hypothetically Speaking http://www.loganselm.blogspot.com

After the controversy surrounding their previous poll in which the editors seemed to have written off Kerry and any possible bounce for him from the debates, the Columbus Dispatch today announced that their latest poll showed a dead heat, but with very good strength for Kerry. We present an extend quote from this survey because, for unknown reasons, it is not available online yet:

    "How close is the matchup? Kerry leads by a mere eight votes of 2,880 ballots returned in the mail survey - the tighest margin ever in a final Dispatch poll.

    "Kerry has surged from a 7 percentage-point deficit into a tie. And sevveral signs indicate that the Massachusettts senator has gained the momentum in Ohio. Kerry is ahead by 14 points among indepedent voters. He has a narrow lead in northwestern Ohio, the state's most reliable bellwether media market. And he has brought black voters home, gaining 91 percent support among black respondents.

Kerry up by 2 in new Ohio Poll; 13-point swing from Sept.

Via Hypothetically Speaking http://www.loganselm.blogspot.com:

The Cincinnati Enquirer has a story today (http://www.enquirer.com/midday/10/10202004_News_mday_ohiopoll20.html) on the new "Ohio Poll" conducted by the Institute for Policy Research's at the University of Cincinnati poll taken Oct. 11-17. The poll was of 757 Likely Voters:

Kerry - 48%
Bush - 46%
Other - 1%
Unknown - 5%
MoE - 3.6%

This is a big, 13-point swing from September when they showed the race to be:

Kerry - 43%
Bush - 54%
Other - 2%
Unknown - 1
MoE - 3.6%

These numbers bring Kerry back to exactly where the Ohio Poll had him in August.

Interestingly, Kerry is tied with Bush in all age groups other than 18-29 where Kerry has an enormous 14 point lead.

Kerry also has a 50-47 margin among males and a 47-46 margin among females. He also enjoys a 55-26 advantage among independent voters.

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